Best Not Miss – 2025 AFC West Preview

For the last several years, the Kansas City Chiefs have had the AFC West, and arguably the entire NFL, in a chokehold. But empires crumbling is nothing new. Despite an incredible regular season, the Chiefs fell apart in the Super Bowl.

Meanwhile, two of their also rans in the division made significant progress, with both the Denver Broncos and Los Angeles Chargers taking leaps last year. And the Las Vegas Raiders are looking to change their station.

The Chiefs still hold the throne. But for how long?

 

 Denver Broncos

Record in 2024-25: 10-7

Key Player: Evan Engram – Tight End

Player to Watch: Talanoa Hufanga – Safety

Last season, it looked like the Broncos finally found their signal caller in Bo Nix. He had a sneakily strong rookie campaign, with over 3700 yards and 29 passing touchdowns, adding in over 400 rushing yards and four scores for good measure. Good play under center is a must in the AFC West, but Nix needs weapons not named Courtland Sutton. Enter Evan Engram, the tight end who’s shown flashes of brilliance and also has games where you forget he was on the field. But if he can become a safety net for his young quarterback, the Denver offense could become more than serviceable.

The defense picked up safety Talanoa Hufanga from the 49ers. First, he brings deep playoff experience, having played in three NFC Championship games and a Super Bowl. Second, having a talented safety in a division featuring Travis Kelce and Brock Bowers can’t be a bad thing. The defense was good last year overall, but middling in pass defense. A key piece over the top should correct that. Prediction: 9-8

 

 Kansas City Chiefs

Record in 2024-25: 15-2

Key Player: Xavier Worthy – Wide Receiver

Player to Watch: Josh Simmons – Left Tackle

Despite the recent dominance, the Chiefs have been in a war of attrition, and they’ve slowly been losing. Tyreek Hill’s a distant memory, Travis Kelce is getting old and now Rashee Rice is suspended. That puts more pressure on second year receiver Xavier Worthy. He has all the speed and talent, but the Chiefs need him to unleash it this year. The Super Bowl highlighted issues with the offensive line, as Patrick Mahomes was surrounded by Eagles defenders all night. Rookie tackle Josh Simmons has been brought in to protect the franchise’s blind side. Mahomes is a wizard but he’ll need the young guys to get his back.

To paraphrase Jesse Pinkman in Breaking Bad: “they can’t keep getting away with it!” That’s how last year felt with the Chiefs getting to 15 wins in some of the most unlikely ways possible. But that’s what they’ll try to replicate on the defensive side of the ball this year. Led by All World defensive tackle Chris Jones, this solid unit will need to keep games close, and hope Mahomes can be…well, Mahomes. Prediction: 11-6

 

 Las Vegas Raiders

Record in 2024-25: 4-13

Key Player: Geno Smith – Quarterback

Player to Watch: Ashton Jeanty – Running Back

The silver and black made a lot of changes this offseason, perhaps none more important than the one on the sidelines. Pete Carroll comes in as Head Coach, hopefully offering the stability this franchise has sorely needed. Geno Smith revived his career in Seattle, but now the Raiders are hoping that success can translate to the desert. There’s finally veteran presence leading the team both on and off the field, but those two additions can only do so much.

Smith will rely heavily on tight end Brock Bowers, who put up nearly a third of the team’s entire receiving yard total last year by himself, despite being a rookie. He’ll likely get some help as rookie running back Ashton Jeanty is expected to get a heavy workload. Expect a lot of runs to set up play-action, with Bowers as the primary target.

The defense was middle of the pack last year in yards allowed. Not bad, but not good enough, either. But Carroll should improve things on that side of the ball, utilizing all the attention Maxx Crosby gets on the edge to free up other blitz packages. Overall, things should be better in Vegas this year, but not enough that you should put it all on black. Prediction: 7-10

 

 Los Angeles Chargers

Record in 2024-25: 11-6

Key Player: Justin Herbert – Quarterback

Player to Watch: Omarion Hampton – Running Back

The Chargers were better last year, likely the effect of bringing Jim Harbaugh in as Head Coach. They seemed to shoot themselves in the foot less than their usual 92% of the time. The next phase in their growth is another step for Justin Herbert. He posted good numbers last year, including an absurd 23:3 touchdown to interception ratio, but despite his talent, he’s still a step below other AFC elite quarterbacks like Mahomes, Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson and Joe Burrow.

He’ll get some help to try to join their ranks this year. A revamped rushing attack with rookie Omarion Hampton, plus bringing in Najee Harris from Pittsburgh should balance the offense nicely. With a few new toys at receiver, Herbert may finally have his breakout year that never seems to happen.

Defensively, the Bolts were good last year, which should be expected of a Harbaugh defense. But they did lose defensive end Joey Bosa to Buffalo, which is going to sting a little bit. If the defense regresses at all this year, they’ll need the offense to improve in turn. Prediction: 11-6